Fast jeder hat schon einmal davon gehört, dass bestimmte Aktien einbrechen und Anleger nervös werden. Das passiert immer wieder mal. Doch ab wann tatsächlich von einem Börsencrash gesprochen wird, ist vielen nicht bewusst. Also wollen wir in diesem Artikel die Fragen klären: „Was ist ein Börsencrash?“ und „Droht uns 2021 ein Aktiencrash?“
Bei einem Börsencrash handelt es sich um einen drastischen Kurseinbruch an der Börse. Doch wie kommt es dazu?
Anfang Oktober 2021 ist beispielsweise am Deutschen Aktienmarkt ein Kurseinbruch zu beobachten. Der Kurseinbruch ist nicht auf ein singuläres Ereignis zurückzuführen, sondern auf einen sich verschlechternden wirtschaftlichen Ausblick. Negative Schlagzeilen verstärken den Verkaufsdruck und ein Teil der Jahresgewinne 2021 schmelzen dahin, der Markt gerät in einen Abwärtstrend. Anders als bei Renditeimmobilien kommt es zu emotional begründeten Verkäufen – “Bloß Raus” lautet oft die Devise, wenn spontan verkauft wird.
Ein anderes Phänomen sind äußere Schocks: Das ist beispielsweise bei dem Ausbruch der Coronakrise Anfang 2020 passiert. Die Anleger fürchteten, durch die Krise erhebliche Wertverluste verzeichnen zu müssen. Sie verkauften daher große Mengen ihrer Aktien, um liquide zu bleiben. Käufer gab es für die abgestoßenen Aktien allerdings keine. Dadurch fielen die Preise innerhalb kürzester Zeit in den Keller.
Aber auch das Platzen einer Spekulationsblase kann einen Börsencrash 2021 bewirken, möglicherweise ausgelöst durch die im Raum stehenden “Tapering” Maßnahmen der amerikanischen Notenbank FED, die für schlechte Stimmung am Aktienmarkt sorgen.
Wir haben gefragt: Sehen wir 2021 noch einen Aktiencrash? Die Tendenz: Nein.
Das Aktienportfolio strapaziert die Nerven des Anlegers stärker als ein eine vermietete Immobilie mit konstanten Renditen.
Die Rendite des Aktienportfolios ist zwar auf lange Sicht positiv, jedoch sind vermietete Immobilien deutlich weniger anfällig für Crashs und haben sowohl eine höhere als auch eine konstantere Rendite.
Wie Aktien und vermietete Immobilien in einem gemeinsamen Portfolio funktionieren, erklären wir gerne in einem digitalen Infogespräch.
A stock bubble occurs when there is great euphoria in the stock market and demand keeps growing. Due to the increasing demand, the share price also rises, which ultimately leads to the fact that the relationship between company values and share prices is no longer balanced. The price of the share no longercorresponds to its actual value. It is valued too high. Usually this only becomes apparent after a certain time lag. But the speculative bubble has already developed and bursts as soon as this disproportion is noticed. As a result, investors want to sell their shares as quickly as possible.
Speculative bubble explained simply: Many investors invest in overvalued shares.
But there is also another scenario: the ECB has been printing enormous amounts of money for some time (analogously, the other major central banks in the USA, China and Japan have been doing so):
Die Bilanz der EZB wird länger und länger (Quelle).
This leads to an increasing amount of money, which is now invested in shares, real estate, gold, etc. The prices rise because the increasing amount of money is distributed among the same number of shares, real estate, gold, etc. as before. Prices rise because the increasing amount of money is distributed among the same number of shares, real estate, gold, etc. as before.
Just because the prices of tangible assets are rising strongly does not automatically mean that there is a bubble. Many so-called experts ignore this.
When will the stock market bubble burst? What will cause the possible stock market crash in 2021?
The stock market is all about confidence. So when a bubble forms, it depends on whether investors trust that the company will still match the value of the share. If this confidence is lacking, investors are anxious to sell their company shares as quickly as possible. This leads to supply being greater than demand. The natural consequence of this: The price falls. The more investors sell their shares, the further the price falls. Investors should therefore act as quickly as possible. The longer they wait, the more money they lose and the worse the consequences of a stock market crash are for them. Unless you can sit out a stock market crash and wait until the share price recovers and rises again.
Fear and greed determine the market
Hardly any capital investment is as emotionally charged as investing in shares. The stock market is largely driven by two emotions: fear and greed. If fear prevails, as in the scenario described above, investors want to get rid of their shares and prices fall. If everything goes well, people become greedy and demand grows. Prices rise. This is why there is the so-called Fear & Greed index.
This index shows which phase a market is currently in. Various factors are taken into account. Among other things, it observes how the risk behaviour of investors is changing. For example, government bonds are considered a safe form of investment. If it is found that shares are more popular than bonds, this is an indication that the tendency is more towards greed than towards fear. The trading volume of share purchases and sales is also compared, as well as the trading volume of rising and falling shares. The sum of these results in a value that indicates whether fear or greed dominates the market. In the event of a stock market crash, the value is far below 50. Those who regularly follow this index and are aware of the causes of a stock market crash can roughly estimate when or if a stock market crash is coming.
How to protect against a stock crash?
The bursting of a stock bubble depends on subjective factors, which in turn are determined by the behaviour of individual investors. Preventing the bubble from bursting is therefore very difficult. More and more amateurs are placing themselves on the market, which means that emotions and mass psychological phenomena are becoming increasingly important. It is true that governments and central banks have possibilities to cushion price collapses or to take countermeasures before a bubble develops. However, private investors hardly have any options to really influence or stop a stock market crash.
Protection against a stock market crash is hardly possible. However, investors can very well protect themselves from the consequences of a stock market crash. Shares are always valued with regard to the future earning power of a company. If the potential growth in turnover is no longer in proportion to the current valuation of the share, caution is called for. To assess the relationship between potential and current valuation, it helps to look at key figures. The following video illustrates the connection between company valuation and sales growth:
The negative consequences of a crash can also be minimised by investors spreading their money over several investment categories: Real estate, for example, is less speculative. An investment in intrinsic values can be decisive here. While shares are subject to daily changes in value due to rapid buying and selling, the value of real estate remains stable. Thus, real estate is not affected by short-term price fluctuations and thus offers significantly more security. Article recommendation: Shares vs real estate
Wer aber nicht nur auf Immobilien setzen möchte, sollte sich wenigstens teilweise damit auseinandersetzen. Risikostreuung ist ein existenzielles Thema bei der Kapitalanlage. Es macht daher Sinn, sein Vermögen zu verteilen. Ein Anleger, der während eines Börsencrashs lediglich zehn Prozent seines Vermögens verliert, steht deutlich besser da als jemand, der sein gesamtes Vermögen in Wertpapiere angelegt hat. Die Risikostreuung sollte demnach nicht unterschätzt werden. Zwischen Aktien und Immobilien herrscht eine sehr geringe negative Korrelation von -0,14 %. Bei eine Korrelation nahe 0 kann davon ausgegangen werden, dass der Wert der einen Investition (z.B. Aktien) sich nicht analog zum Wert einer anderen Investition (z.B. Immobilien) entwickelt. Zudem bieten Immobilien mit einer Volatilität von unter 3 % eine sehr geringe Schwankungsanfälligkeit. Ein riskantes Aktiengeschäft kann damit wunderbar abgesichert werden.
In order not to go down with flying colours in a stock market crash, it is not only risk diversification that is important. Stock investors should also make sure that they do not invest their entire assets, but only the portion of the assets that they can do without in case of doubt. If this is not observed, in the worst case a large part of the assets can go up in smoke in a stock market crash. In order to have additional protection, a cash reserve is a good idea. Should the entire invested assets actually be lost, a certain "nest egg" in the safe can be of decisive importance.
Test now: Passt eine Immobilie als Kapitalanlage zu mir?
Conclusion: What protects against a stock market crash?
Basically, investors should not put all their eggs in one basket. Investing in tangible assets is always advisable. Yes, shares also belong to tangible assets, but: The principle of risk spreading or diversification also applies here. A portfolio consisting of shares, real estate and other tangible assets offers significantly more security than a pure share portfolio.
Development stock exchange 2021
There are some conditions for a positive development of the stock exchange in 2021:
Possible further aid payments by the American state to its citizens: The higher the aid, the better for the stock market
Consumer behaviour of citizens after the lockdowns: the more people shop, holiday and return to the "old" life, the better for the stock markets
Emergence of inflation: Emerging inflation has a positive long-term impact on equity markets
The market crash triggered by the Corona pandemic led to the European Central Bank printing more and more money and throwing it on the market. This course of action will probably be maintained in 2021, which in turn will cause share values to climb upwards again.
To stimulate the economy, the ECB buys more government bonds. This gives the state money that it can reinvest, for example in infrastructure. The commissioned companies benefit from this and can remain liquid and survive despite the crisis that currently still prevails.
When will the next stock market crash come in 2021?
As long as the central banks continue to pledge and deliver their support, a stock market crash is currently unlikely. If they withdraw their support, the situation can quickly change. Further risk factors are listed in the bullet points above.
Nevertheless, there are some points in favour of such a development. The continual printing of money keeps on cranking up inflation. However, new money ultimately leads to money being worth less. Therefore, ending the money printing process would provide some protection against inflation. On the other hand, the money made available must also be repaid at some point. But who repays these debts? It is the following generations that will be confronted with an enormous debt burden.
Another risk factor is the devaluation of currencies against each other. The pandemic is currently affecting all countries equally, both health-wise and economically. Nevertheless, not all countries are taking the same measures. Of course, this can also have an impact on monetary policy. If a country stops pumping money into the economy, it automatically devalues its currency against other countries if they continue to do so.
Not to forget: The gap between rich and poor is widening, society is becoming more and more divided. While the poor become poorer and poorer, the rich become richer and richer. Assuming that only a few loans are granted, it is obvious that these are given to those people who have a good credit rating. Thus, the rich can benefit from leverage, while the poor are denied it. Wealth can thus be increased even in times of crisis.
What speaks against it?
In spite of all this, there are also good reasons for not not to reduce financial support. The economy is dependent on the current subsidies or stimuli. This is equally true for consumers. Without adequate support, the economy would continue to go downhill. This would lead to an extreme increase in unemployment and despair.
Furthermore, it is important that the interest rate level is kept low. If, on the other hand, bank funds become a rarity, an increase in interest rates cannot be avoided.
Of course, the financing of the state budget also plays a major role. The economy is in absolute crisis mode and is running on a tight budget, which means that the state is generating less tax revenue. Further support through new money would therefore also be more than desirable from the state's point of view.
However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to assess the development of the market. After all, there are now more and more small investors in addition to institutional investors. The psychology of the masses is gaining influence. This can develop for the better or for the worse. The decisive factors here are human emotions, which - as already mentioned - range between fear and greed. The best example of such a mass phenomenon is the rush of the Wallstreetbets community to buy GameStop shares at the beginning of 2021. Millions of small investors organised themselves in internet forums to specifically buy shares in the long-established company GameStop, which was targeted by short-sellers. The price of the GameStop share multiplied briefly as a result.
So investing in equities will become even more multi-layered in the future. The bottom line is that a solid analysis of equity values as well as a broad-based investment foundation consisting of shares, real estate and other tangible assets is a good basis for financial security.